Category Archives: Other – Business & Finance
23 Jan What is backtesting?
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Backtesting is a financial term for testing a market theory by using historical data. It gives us the ability to know what a trading strategy has a chance of being success ful or not. Backtesting is essentially a simulation using data in the past to try and project an outcome for the present or future.
Does it work?
We have often heard the phrase “…past results are not indicative of future returns .” Simply, just because it worked in the past doesn’t mean it is necessarily going to work in the future. But backtesting is not without value, especially if you subscribe to the notion that markets can be timed (to some degree). If you are an advocate of technical analysis , than you probably believe that backtesting has merit. After all, we are just capturing pattern s that exist in the market and these should be valid because individuals are the ones that make the trade. So in essense, we are capturing pattern s of human behaviour and this should be fairly measurable.
If, however, you are an opponent of backtesting and technical analysis than you are probably passing this off as hogwash, voodoo, or witchcraft. In your mind, there is no possible way to capture pattern s that are going to repeat themselves. The market is random after all.
I think the answer lies somewhere in the middle. Backtesting has its place but should not be the end-all cure-all. Proper money management and trading management needs to be in place in order to mitigate losses. Backtesting data trials are not always going to show accurate results no matter how often you run them. They should be used more as a guideline rather than a hard fast rule.
If you do decide to implement some kind of simulation with backtesting , make sure you forward test your backtesting by using paper trading . This is important as it will give you a pretty good indication of whether your backtesting is worthwhile. Of course, there is no true test than actual trades but it can at least give you a ball park on how well backtesting can perform.
23 Jan Is Day Trading Dead?
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Day trading is not dead. In fact, it is one of those phenomina that when it makes a comeback it’s because all the suckers are gone. Day trading is here, and it is here to stay. Now, don’t go run out and set up a trading account at a day trading firm, just yet. You need to know why so many people failed and why the ones that are doing it today are able to make it a success .
Day trading is the mechanism by which someone trades a stock early in the day and the within seconds, minutes, or sometimes hours will get out of the position by reversing it. By reverse what is meant is, if a trader was short, he/she will go long and vice versa. Reversing a trade means that the trader is no longer on the hook for anything that may happen to that financial instrument. They have either profited or took a loss, or they managed to break out even. Keep in mind that with any of this, commissions are not being factored in.
22 Jan Where To Put Your Money In Troubled Times
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It is extremely difficult to know where to put your money in these trouble d times. Although doing nothing (or saving in a bank) can be an option, it could come back to haunt you if you’re not careful. It’s true that having reserve cash is a good idea. But with all this talk about stimulus, bailouts and the like, cash is probably going be worth a lot less. So what do you do?
Diversify
This one is age old and still stands today. It’s the old saying, “don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” But don’t overdo it either. Investments in too many stocks or varying asset classes can lead to mediocre gains. It’s also much more difficult to manage the more assets you have invested in. A good rule of thumb is if you can’t name all the stocks or bonds you own, you probably own too many.
Average Down
I don’t know why all the market gurus and spin doctors have suddenly forgotten this golden rule. I guess it’s because they like to sensationalize everything they get a hold of. But if you find quality companies , why not continue to make investments in them? As their prices decrease you can buy more of these gems and then when the market eventually reverses you will be set to make up for all the losses. The key here is to pick the right companies . You want to look for ones that have little or no debt, grow organically (not by issuing shares or using debt to pay salaries and bonuses, etc.) and where management is buying their own stocks. Companies like this may be few and far between but they’re out there if you look hard enough.
Get Out of Debt
This one should perhaps be the first item. But what’s the point of throwing money into the stock market if you have excessive credit card debt ? The returns you make on your investments have to be in excess of the rate that you are paying on your debt (usually in the 20-30% range). Even in better times stocks don’t consistently give you that kind of return. In good times, you should expect about 10%. Having debt if you becoming un employed is a real hassle as well. In good times or bad, it always best to keep debt very low.
Hard Assets
Assets like gold and silver or commodities have taken a hit lately (although gold is starting to reverse it’s trend). But that is likely to change. The stimulus that is going to get passed is going to make our dollar decline. Inflation is going hit us like a ton of bricks. Hard assets have typically been a good hedge against inflation. For advice on how and what to buy, you should contact a financial advisor.
It is certainly difficult to know where to put your money in troubled times . But it’s not impossible. It will take more work and here is truly where a good financial advisor can help. By working closely with your advisor you should be able to navigate success fully in these crazy market s.
Please Note: The information provided in this report in no way constitutes investment advice. It provides a high level overview of some areas to consider. Always consult a financial advisor before risking any of your capital.
22 Jan Investing Mistakes:
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22 Jan Basic Stock Information:
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22 Jan Commodity Futures:
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22 Jan Selling Commodities:
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22 Jan STOCK ANALYSIS – After a Candlestick DOJI:
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21 Jan Futures Price:
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21 Jan Stock Price History:
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